Call for Consultancy Proposals

Background and Context The Middle East and North Africa region is experiencing a period of profound disruption shaped by the latest war in the Middle East, wider regional escalation risks, and shifting geopolitical alignments, economic shocks, social fragility, and worsening climate and environmental pressures. These developments are unfolding in a region already marked by inequality, conflict vulnerability, fossil fuel dependency, water scarcity, food insecurity, energy insecurity, constrained civic space, and uneven climate resilience. The war and its broader regional repercussions are likely to reshape power relations, diplomacy, security priorities, governance systems, economic planning, public narratives, and social movements. The disruption also has direct and indirect climate and environmental consequences, including damage to ecosystems and infrastructure, pollution risks, reconstruction pressures, increased fossil fuel dependency, weakened environmental governance, and heightened vulnerability of communities already facing climate impacts. For Greenpeace MENA, this moment requires a strategic assessment of how geopolitical and economic changes intersect with climate justice, environmental protection, energy transition, civic space, and movement-building. The assessment should help Greenpeace MENA understand the implications for its campaigns, advocacy, partnerships, public positioning, narratives, risk management, and long-term strategic direction. It should also inform the development of Greenpeace MENA s updated Theory of Change, including revised assumptions, leverage points, risks, opportunities, and strategic choices. Purpose The purpose of this consultancy is to provide Greenpeace MENA with a rigorous, conflict-sensitive and forward-looking strategic analysis of the latest Middle East war and wider regional disruption, with a focus on its geopolitical, economic, social, climate and environmental implications, and the consequences for Greenpeace MENA s campaigns, strategy, alliances, positioning and new Theory of Change. The consultancy should generate practical and actionable recommendations that enable Greenpeace MENA to respond strategically to the current moment, strengthen its relevance and impact, and align its future work with emerging regional realities. Objectives The consultancy will aim to: Assess the geopolitical implications in MENA countries (with a focus on Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, UAE and KSA) of the latest war in the Middle East, including regional power shifts, diplomacy, governance, security priorities, civic space, public discourse and implications for civil society actors. Analyze the economic and political economy impacts in MENA countries of the war and wider disruption, including implications for macroeconomic stability, energy systems, reconstruction, trade, livelihoods, public finance, inequality, debt, extractivism, and development pathways. Examine the climate and environmental impacts of the disruption, including direct environmental harm, indirect ecological consequences, climate resilience, environmental governance, reconstruction risks, pollution, energy choices, food and water security, and environmental justice. Identify implications for Greenpeace MENA s campaigns, narratives, advocacy priorities, partnerships, movement-building, public positioning, and regional relevance. Provide strategic recommendations to inform Greenpeace MENA s updated Theory of Change, including revised assumptions, systems analysis, leverage points, pathways of change, risks, opportunities, and priority strategic choices. Support Greenpeace MENA in understanding how to meet the moment in a way that is politically grounded, climate-relevant, justice-oriented, conflict-sensitive and aligned with Greenpeace values. Scope of Work The consultant or consultancy team will undertake a regional strategic assessment of Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, the UAE and KSA, covering the following areas: Geopolitical Analysis The assessment should examine: Regional power shifts and emerging alliances. The role of key state and non-state actors. Impacts on diplomacy, regional cooperation and multilateralism. Shifts in security priorities and implications for climate and environmental agendas. Governance implications, including state capacity, legitimacy, public trust, and institutional fragility. Civic space, freedom of expression, and civil society risks and opportunities. Public narratives related to war, security, sovereignty, justice, energy, and environment. Implications for regional climate diplomacy and the role of MENA countries in global climate negotiations.

Desired Candidate Profile

MENA geopolitics, conflict dynamics, and regional diplomacy. Political economy and macroeconomic analysis. Climate policy, environmental governance, and environmental justice. Energy systems, fossil fuel dependency, renewable energy, and just transition. Civil society strategy, civic space, and movement-building. Conflict-sensitive research and analysis. Strategic planning and Theory of Change development. Experience working with international NGOs, advocacy organizations, or social movements. Strong understanding of Greenpeace values, climate justice principles, and public campaigning is desirable. Fluency in English is required. Arabic and/or French language skills are strongly desirable. Demonstrated ability to produce high-quality strategic reports for senior leadership audiences.